Municipal Profile

Welch

Welch City Of in wv-welch. This profile highlights what is happening and why it matters using water-system, fiscal, capital, and signal context.

WatchScore date Mar 25, 2026Methodology v0.1.2

Headline score

37.0

84% confidence · cohort Community · < 25k · Ground.

Public band

Watch

Latest score 37.0

Score confidence

84%

Peer percentile

100%

Community · < 25k · Ground

Coverage posture

2 missing

2 score inputs currently missing

Decision support

Unified explainability

Structural indicators

Operational Stress16.0 / 20.0

Operational Stress totals 16.000 points, led by compliance escalation.

Capex Pressure0.0 / 20.0

Capex Pressure totals 0.000 points with no triggered factors.

Revenue Fragility3.0 / 20.0

Revenue Fragility totals 3.000 points, led by population served decline.

Rate Constraint8.0 / 20.0

Rate Constraint totals 8.000 points, led by income erosion.

Governance Risk10.0 / 20.0

Governance Risk totals 10.000 points, led by parent-government fiscal stress.

Stress diagnostics

  • Structural stress is currently driven by compliance-related escalation within recent monitoring activity.
  • Affordability pressure is present, with declining real income affecting rate capacity.
  • Liquidity conditions indicate moderate constraint.
  • Additional monitoring signals reflect ongoing administrative and reporting strain.
  • Some areas remain under active evaluation as coverage expands.

Signal timeline summary

Significantactive

Parent-Government Fiscal Stress

Parent-government debt, pension, or operating stress can constrain infrastructure support and governance flexibility.

Effective Mar 20, 2026

Materialactive

Income Erosion

Weakening household income reduces rate capacity and affordability headroom.

Effective Mar 13, 2026

Emergingactive

Population Served Decline

A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.

Effective Mar 13, 2026

Materialactive

Monitoring and Reporting Failures

Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.

Effective Mar 13, 2026

Significantactive

Compliance Escalation

Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.

Effective Mar 13, 2026

Materialactive

Income Erosion

Weakening household income reduces rate capacity and affordability headroom.

Effective Mar 12, 2026

Emergingactive

Population Served Decline

A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.

Effective Mar 12, 2026

Materialactive

Monitoring and Reporting Failures

Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.

Effective Mar 12, 2026

Significantactive

Compliance Escalation

Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.

Effective Mar 12, 2026

Source observations

Completeness 0% · raw-file links remain policy-gated to authorized internal review workflows.

Infrastructure Capital Gap

Value: Not available

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.5000

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

SRF Dependence Spike

Value: projects_3y=0.000000, committed_per_capita=0.00, forgiveness_per_capita=0.00, forgiveness_share=None, need_per_capita=None

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 1.0000

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Parent-Government Fiscal Stress

Value: debt_service_ratio>=14, operating_deficit_flag=1

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.5000

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Rapid Score Deterioration

Value: prior_score=27.000, prior_as_of_date=2026-03-13

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 1.0000

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Utility Data Staleness

Value: latest_document_id=None

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.5000

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Compliance Escalation

Value: violations_3y=20, enforcement_actions_3y=76, high_severity_3y=84

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.9200

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Monitoring / Reporting Failures

Value: monitoring_related_violations=108

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.9200

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Income Erosion

Value: -5.093582

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Dec 31, 2025

Confidence: 0.6955

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Housing Market Weakness

Value: housing_value_trend=46.954957, permit_trend_5yr=None

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.6955

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Population Served Decline

Value: -3.847597

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Dec 31, 2025

Confidence: 0.6955

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Coverage and history

Stress Diagnostics

  • Latest headline score sits in the watch band as of Mar 25, 2026.
  • Score confidence is 84% based on evidence depth, coverage, and mapping quality.
  • Peer context places this market at the 100% percentile within Community · < 25k · Ground.
  • Detailed drivers, contribution values, and workflow actions are available through account access.

Expanded stress diagnostics

Open detailed contribution diagnostics
Infrastructure Capital Gap

Capital-gap scoring is unavailable because no drinking-water capital-need indicator is stored.

Contribution 0.0 / 12.0

Trigger Not triggered

SRF Dependence Spike

SRF dependence contributes +0: 0.000000 drinking-water SRF projects closed within three years with 0.000000 committed and 0.000000 forgiven.

Contribution 0.0 / 8.0

Trigger Not triggered · no_material_srf_dependence

Parent-Government Fiscal Stress

Governance Risk contributes +10: parent-government flags=['debt_service_ratio>=14', 'operating_deficit_flag=1'].

Contribution 10.0 / 10.0

Trigger Triggered · multiple_major_parent_fiscal_flags

Rapid Score Deterioration

Rapid deterioration contributes +0: score delta is 0.000000.

Contribution 0.0 / 4.0

Trigger Not triggered · no_material_deterioration

Utility Data Staleness

Disclosure freshness contributes +0: latest attached disclosure is not stale after None days.

Contribution 0.0 / 6.0

Trigger Not triggered · fresh_document

Compliance Escalation

Operational compliance contributes +12: 96 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years.

Contribution 12.0 / 12.0

Trigger Triggered · open_high_severity

Monitoring / Reporting Failures

Monitoring/reporting contributes +4: 108 monitoring-related violations are on record.

Contribution 4.0 / 8.0

Trigger Triggered · recent_monitoring_failure

Income Erosion

Rate-constraint income erosion contributes +8: inflation-adjusted income trend is -5.093582%.

Contribution 8.0 / 20.0

Trigger Triggered · real_income_decline_5_plus

Housing Market Weakness

Housing-market weakness contributes +0: housing trend=46.954957, permit trend=None.

Contribution 0.0 / 10.0

Trigger Not triggered · no_material_housing_weakness

Population Served Decline

Population trend contributes +3: five-year population change is -3.847597%.

Contribution 3.0 / 10.0

Trigger Triggered · decline_2_plus

Confidence summary

Confidence is mainly capped by document freshness.

Gate low (option_b)

  • score_confidence: high
  • availability_score: high
  • mapping_confidence: high
  • freshness_score: high
  • provenance_completeness: low

Missing factor coverage

2 score inputs remain missing on the latest live score, which contributes to the confidence caution shown above.

Disclosure freshness diagnostics

0 attached local documents · 0 structured facts

No attached disclosure document has a usable reference date. Public profile sections are summarized because score confidence is currently low.

Latest reference Not available · stale after Not available

Score movement

0.0

Previous run Mar 24, 2026

Mar 25, 2026

Score 37.0 in band watch. Confidence 84%.

Delta vs prior run 0.0

Mar 24, 2026

Score 37.0 in band watch. Confidence 78%.

Delta vs prior run 0.0

Mar 22, 2026

Score 37.0 in band watch. Confidence 78%.

Delta vs prior run 0.0

Mar 21, 2026

Score 37.0 in band watch. Confidence 78%.

Delta vs prior run 0.0

Mar 20, 2026

Score 37.0 in band watch. Confidence 78%.

Delta vs prior run 10.0

Mar 18, 2026

Score 27.0 in band watch. Confidence 71%.

Delta vs prior run 0.0

Mar 16, 2026

Score 27.0 in band watch. Confidence 71%.

Delta vs prior run 0.0

Mar 13, 2026

Score 27.0 in band watch. Confidence 71%.

Delta vs prior run 0.0

Mar 13, 2026

Score 27.0 in band watch. Confidence 71%.

Delta vs prior run 0.0

Mar 12, 2026

Score 27.0 in band watch. Confidence 71%.

Trend and export

Full timeline review is available for paid workflows.

Regime

Regime Timeline

Score update

Mar 25, 2026

Score 37.000 (watch).

Historical score

Mar 25, 2026

Historical score 37.000 (watch).

Methodology updated

Mar 25, 2026

Methodology changed from v0.1.1 to v0.1.2.

Historical score

Mar 24, 2026

Historical score 37.000 (watch).

Methodology updated

Mar 24, 2026

Methodology changed from v0.1.2 to v0.1.1.

Historical score

Mar 22, 2026

Historical score 37.000 (watch).

Historical score

Mar 21, 2026

Historical score 37.000 (watch).

Parent-Government Fiscal Stress

Mar 20, 2026

Signal Parent-Government Fiscal Stress is active.

Historical score

Mar 20, 2026

Historical score 37.000 (watch).

Historical score

Mar 18, 2026

Historical score 27.000 (watch).

Historical score

Mar 16, 2026

Historical score 27.000 (watch).

Methodology updated

Mar 16, 2026

Methodology changed from v0.1.1 to v0.1.2.

Income Erosion

Mar 13, 2026

Signal Income Erosion is active.

Population Served Decline

Mar 13, 2026

Signal Population Served Decline is active.

Monitoring / Reporting Failures

Mar 13, 2026

Signal Monitoring / Reporting Failures is active.

Compliance Escalation

Mar 13, 2026

Signal Compliance Escalation is active.

Historical score

Mar 13, 2026

Historical score 27.000 (watch).

Historical score

Mar 13, 2026

Historical score 27.000 (watch).

Methodology updated

Mar 13, 2026

Methodology changed from v0.1.0 to v0.1.1.

Income Erosion

Mar 12, 2026

Signal Income Erosion is active.

Population Served Decline

Mar 12, 2026

Signal Population Served Decline is active.

Monitoring / Reporting Failures

Mar 12, 2026

Signal Monitoring / Reporting Failures is active.

Compliance Escalation

Mar 12, 2026

Signal Compliance Escalation is active.

Historical score

Mar 12, 2026

Historical score 27.000 (watch).

Infrastructure indicators

Infrastructure Exposure

Drinking-water system snapshot

PWSID WV3302421 · population served 2,907 · source water ground_water

Violations 0 · enforcement actions 0

Wastewater and capital beta context

Wastewater links 0 · capital indicators 0 · SRF projects 0

Headline-score eligibility remains off by default unless mapping confidence is high and explicitly enabled.

Fiscal overlay

Fiscal Pressure Metrics

City of Welch

Latest fiscal year 2024.

Parent-government fiscal context is shown here as a slower-moving governance overlay rather than a live operating signal.

Comparison

Cross-system comparison

Compare this system

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Exports

Data and report exports

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Sources

Source-linked panels

Source-backed panel

Scoring and signal state

Structured score contributions and public signal summaries, tracked with methodology version and peer context.

  • Methodology version: v0.1.2
  • As of date: 2026-03-25
  • Signals in history: 9

Source-backed panel

Drinking-water identity and compliance

System identity, population served, violation history, enforcement actions, and boundary metadata.

  • PWSID: WV3302421
  • Snapshot date: Not available
  • Violations: 0
  • Enforcement actions: 0

Source-backed panel

Parent-government fiscal overlay

Organization-level fiscal metrics remain a separate overlay and feed Governance Risk in v1.

  • Parent government: City of Welch
  • Latest fiscal year: 2024

Source-backed panel

Wastewater and capital context

Wastewater remains beta-only in v1 unless mapping confidence is high and explicitly enabled.

  • Wastewater links: 0
  • Capital indicators: 0
  • SRF projects: 0