Public band
Fragile
Latest score 42.0
Municipal Profile
WATONGA
Watonga in ok-watonga. This profile highlights what is happening and why it matters using water-system, fiscal, capital, and signal context.
FragileScore date Mar 25, 2026Methodology v0.1.2
Headline score
42.0
86% confidence · cohort Community · < 25k · Ground.
Score confidence
86%
Peer percentile
100%
Community · < 25k · Ground
Coverage posture
2 missing
2 score inputs currently missing
Decision support
Unified explainability
Structural indicators
Operational Stress16.0 / 20.0
Operational Stress totals 16.000 points, led by compliance escalation.
Capex Pressure12.0 / 20.0
Capex Pressure totals 12.000 points, led by infrastructure capital gap.
Revenue Fragility10.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility totals 10.000 points, led by population served decline.
Rate Constraint4.0 / 20.0
Rate Constraint totals 4.000 points, led by income erosion.
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk totals 0.000 points with no triggered factors.
Stress diagnostics
- Structural stress is currently driven by compliance-related escalation within recent monitoring activity.
- Affordability pressure is present, with declining real income affecting rate capacity.
- Liquidity conditions indicate moderate constraint.
- Additional monitoring signals reflect ongoing administrative and reporting strain.
- Some areas remain under active evaluation as coverage expands.
Signal timeline summary
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.
Effective Mar 25, 2026
Income Erosion
Weakening household income reduces rate capacity and affordability headroom.
Effective Mar 24, 2026
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Effective Mar 24, 2026
Monitoring and Reporting Failures
Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.
Effective Mar 24, 2026
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Effective Mar 24, 2026
Source observations
Completeness 0% · raw-file links remain policy-gated to authorized internal review workflows.
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Value: capital_need_20y=9623175.578680, per_capita=3417.32
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Not available
Confidence: 0.9600
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
SRF Dependence Spike
Value: projects_3y=0, committed_per_capita=0.00, forgiveness_per_capita=0.00, forgiveness_share=None, need_per_capita=3417.32
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Not available
Confidence: 1.0000
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Parent-Government Fiscal Stress
Value: No parent-government fiscal overlay is available for this service market.
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Not available
Confidence: 0.9500
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Rapid Score Deterioration
Value: no_prior_history
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Not available
Confidence: 1.0000
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Utility Data Staleness
Value: latest_document_id=None
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Not available
Confidence: 0.5000
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Compliance Escalation
Value: violations_3y=6, enforcement_actions_3y=24, high_severity_3y=17
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Not available
Confidence: 0.9500
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Monitoring / Reporting Failures
Value: monitoring_related_violations=8
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Not available
Confidence: 0.9500
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Income Erosion
Value: -3.388674
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Dec 31, 2025
Confidence: 0.8570
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Housing Market Weakness
Value: housing_value_trend=47.612744, permit_trend_5yr=None
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Not available
Confidence: 0.8570
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Population Served Decline
Value: -10.318125
Source: Source metadata unavailable
Date: Dec 31, 2025
Confidence: 0.8570
Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.
Coverage and history
Stress Diagnostics
- Latest headline score sits in the fragile band as of Mar 25, 2026.
- Score confidence is 86% based on evidence depth, coverage, and mapping quality.
- Peer context places this market at the 100% percentile within Community · < 25k · Ground.
- Detailed drivers, contribution values, and workflow actions are available through account access.
Expanded stress diagnostics
Open detailed contribution diagnostics
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Capex pressure contributes +12: drinking-water capital need is 9623175.578680 with per-capita burden 3417.32.
Contribution 12.0 / 12.0
Trigger Triggered · need_per_capita_2000_plus
SRF Dependence Spike
SRF dependence contributes +0: 0 drinking-water SRF projects closed within three years with 0 committed and 0 forgiven.
Contribution 0.0 / 8.0
Trigger Not triggered · no_material_srf_dependence
Parent-Government Fiscal Stress
Parent-government fiscal stress is unavailable because no parent-government role and fiscal overlay are resolved.
Contribution 0.0 / 10.0
Trigger Not triggered
Rapid Score Deterioration
Rapid deterioration is not triggered because there is no prior score history for this methodology version.
Contribution 0.0 / 4.0
Trigger Not triggered · no_prior_history
Utility Data Staleness
Disclosure freshness contributes +0: latest attached disclosure is not stale after None days.
Contribution 0.0 / 6.0
Trigger Not triggered · fresh_document
Compliance Escalation
Operational compliance contributes +12: 30 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years.
Contribution 12.0 / 12.0
Trigger Triggered · open_high_severity
Monitoring / Reporting Failures
Monitoring/reporting contributes +4: 8 monitoring-related violations are on record.
Contribution 4.0 / 8.0
Trigger Triggered · recent_monitoring_failure
Income Erosion
Rate-constraint income erosion contributes +4: inflation-adjusted income trend is -3.388674%.
Contribution 4.0 / 20.0
Trigger Triggered · real_income_decline_1_plus
Housing Market Weakness
Housing-market weakness contributes +0: housing trend=47.612744, permit trend=None.
Contribution 0.0 / 10.0
Trigger Not triggered · no_material_housing_weakness
Population Served Decline
Population trend contributes +10: five-year population change is -10.318125%.
Contribution 10.0 / 10.0
Trigger Triggered · decline_10_plus
Confidence summary
Confidence is mainly capped by document freshness.
Gate low (option_b)
- score_confidence: high
- availability_score: high
- mapping_confidence: high
- freshness_score: high
- provenance_completeness: low
Missing factor coverage
2 score inputs remain missing on the latest live score, which contributes to the confidence caution shown above.
Disclosure freshness diagnostics
0 attached local documents · 0 structured facts
No attached disclosure document has a usable reference date. Public profile sections are summarized because score confidence is currently low.
Latest reference Not available · stale after Not available
Score movement
12.0
Previous run Mar 24, 2026
Mar 25, 2026
Score 42.0 in band fragile. Confidence 86%.
Delta vs prior run 12.0
Mar 24, 2026
Score 30.0 in band watch. Confidence 72%.
Trend and export
Full timeline review is available for paid workflows.
Regime
Regime Timeline
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Mar 25, 2026
Signal Infrastructure Capital Gap is active.
Score update
Mar 25, 2026
Score 42.000 (fragile).
Historical score
Mar 25, 2026
Historical score 42.000 (fragile).
Methodology updated
Mar 25, 2026
Methodology changed from v0.1.1 to v0.1.2.
Income Erosion
Mar 24, 2026
Signal Income Erosion is active.
Population Served Decline
Mar 24, 2026
Signal Population Served Decline is active.
Monitoring / Reporting Failures
Mar 24, 2026
Signal Monitoring / Reporting Failures is active.
Compliance Escalation
Mar 24, 2026
Signal Compliance Escalation is active.
Historical score
Mar 24, 2026
Historical score 30.000 (watch).
Infrastructure indicators
Infrastructure Exposure
Drinking-water system snapshot
PWSID OK2000602 · population served 2,816 · source water ground_water
Violations 0 · enforcement actions 0
Wastewater and capital beta context
Wastewater links 0 · capital indicators 0 · SRF projects 0
Headline-score eligibility remains off by default unless mapping confidence is high and explicitly enabled.
Fiscal overlay
Fiscal Pressure Metrics
No parent-government overlay is linked for this system yet.
Comparison
Cross-system comparison
Compare this system
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Export workflows
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Exports
Data and report exports
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Sources
Source-linked panels
Source-backed panel
Scoring and signal state
Structured score contributions and public signal summaries, tracked with methodology version and peer context.
- Methodology version: v0.1.2
- As of date: 2026-03-25
- Signals in history: 5
Source-backed panel
Drinking-water identity and compliance
System identity, population served, violation history, enforcement actions, and boundary metadata.
- PWSID: OK2000602
- Snapshot date: Not available
- Violations: 0
- Enforcement actions: 0
Source-backed panel
Wastewater and capital context
Wastewater remains beta-only in v1 unless mapping confidence is high and explicitly enabled.
- Wastewater links: 0
- Capital indicators: 0
- SRF projects: 0
