Municipal Profile

CTWC - NAUGATUCK REG-TERRYVILLE SYSTEM

Ctwc - Naugatuck Reg-Terryville System in ct-ctwc-naugatuck-reg-terryville-system. This profile highlights what is happening and why it matters using water-system, fiscal, capital, and signal context.

WatchScore date Mar 25, 2026Methodology v0.1.2

Headline score

32.0

80% confidence · cohort Community · < 25k · Ground.

Public band

Watch

Latest score 32.0

Score confidence

80%

Peer percentile

100%

Community · < 25k · Ground

Coverage posture

3 missing

3 score inputs currently missing

Decision support

Unified explainability

Structural indicators

Operational Stress0.0 / 20.0

Operational Stress totals 0.000 points with no triggered factors.

Capex Pressure12.0 / 20.0

Capex Pressure totals 12.000 points, led by infrastructure capital gap.

Revenue Fragility0.0 / 20.0

Revenue Fragility totals 0.000 points with no triggered factors.

Rate Constraint20.0 / 20.0

Rate Constraint totals 20.000 points, led by income erosion.

Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0

Governance Risk totals 0.000 points with no triggered factors.

Stress diagnostics

Structural stress is currently driven by compliance-related escalation within recent monitoring activity.
Affordability pressure is present, with declining real income affecting rate capacity.
Liquidity conditions indicate moderate constraint.
Additional monitoring signals reflect ongoing administrative and reporting strain.
Some areas remain under active evaluation as coverage expands.

Signal timeline summary

Significantactive

Infrastructure Capital Gap

Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.

Effective Mar 25, 2026

Significantactive

Income Erosion

Weakening household income reduces rate capacity and affordability headroom.

Effective Mar 24, 2026

Source observations

Completeness 0% · raw-file links remain policy-gated to authorized internal review workflows.

Infrastructure Capital Gap

Value: capital_need_20y=12221176.734932, per_capita=2179.63

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.9600

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

SRF Dependence Spike

Value: projects_3y=0, committed_per_capita=0.00, forgiveness_per_capita=0.00, forgiveness_share=None, need_per_capita=2179.63

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 1.0000

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Parent-Government Fiscal Stress

Value: No parent-government fiscal overlay is available for this service market.

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.9500

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Rapid Score Deterioration

Value: no_prior_history

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 1.0000

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Utility Data Staleness

Value: latest_document_id=None

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.5000

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Compliance Escalation

Value: violations_3y=0, enforcement_actions_3y=0, high_severity_3y=0

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.9500

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Monitoring / Reporting Failures

Value: monitoring_related_violations=0

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.9500

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Income Erosion

Value: -100.000000

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Dec 31, 2025

Confidence: 0.8570

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Housing Market Weakness

Value: housing_value_trend=63.478559, permit_trend_5yr=None

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.8570

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Population Served Decline

Value: Population-served trend is unavailable because the latest support metric snapshot is missing or incomplete.

Source: Source metadata unavailable

Date: Not available

Confidence: 0.8570

Raw-file link policy: Raw files are preserved in object storage and exposed only in authorized workflows.

Coverage and history

Stress Diagnostics

Latest headline score sits in the watch band as of Mar 25, 2026.
Score confidence is 80% based on evidence depth, coverage, and mapping quality.
Peer context places this market at the 100% percentile within Community · < 25k · Ground.
Detailed drivers, contribution values, and workflow actions are available through account access.

Expanded stress diagnostics

Open detailed contribution diagnostics

Infrastructure Capital Gap

Capex pressure contributes +12: drinking-water capital need is 12221176.734932 with per-capita burden 2179.63.

Contribution 12.0 / 12.0

Trigger Triggered · need_per_capita_2000_plus

SRF Dependence Spike

SRF dependence contributes +0: 0 drinking-water SRF projects closed within three years with 0 committed and 0 forgiven.

Contribution 0.0 / 8.0

Trigger Not triggered · no_material_srf_dependence

Parent-Government Fiscal Stress

Parent-government fiscal stress is unavailable because no parent-government role and fiscal overlay are resolved.

Contribution 0.0 / 10.0

Trigger Not triggered

Rapid Score Deterioration

Rapid deterioration is not triggered because there is no prior score history for this methodology version.

Contribution 0.0 / 4.0

Trigger Not triggered · no_prior_history

Utility Data Staleness

Disclosure freshness contributes +0: latest attached disclosure is not stale after None days.

Contribution 0.0 / 6.0

Trigger Not triggered · fresh_document

Compliance Escalation

Operational compliance contributes +0: 0 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years.

Contribution 0.0 / 12.0

Trigger Not triggered · no_current_escalation

Monitoring / Reporting Failures

Monitoring/reporting contributes +0: 0 monitoring-related violations are on record.

Contribution 0.0 / 8.0

Trigger Not triggered · no_monitoring_failure

Income Erosion

Rate-constraint income erosion contributes +20: inflation-adjusted income trend is -100.000000%.

Contribution 20.0 / 20.0

Trigger Triggered · real_income_decline_15_plus

Housing Market Weakness

Housing-market weakness contributes +0: housing trend=63.478559, permit trend=None.

Contribution 0.0 / 10.0

Trigger Not triggered · no_material_housing_weakness

Population Served Decline

Population-served trend is unavailable because the five-year support-base metric is missing.

Contribution 0.0 / 10.0

Trigger Not triggered

Confidence summary

Confidence is mainly capped by missing factor coverage.

Gate low (option_b)

score_confidence: medium
availability_score: medium
mapping_confidence: high
freshness_score: high
provenance_completeness: low

Missing factor coverage

3 score inputs remain missing on the latest live score, which contributes to the confidence caution shown above.

Disclosure freshness diagnostics

0 attached local documents · 0 structured facts

No attached disclosure document has a usable reference date. Public profile sections are summarized because score confidence is currently low.

Latest reference Not available · stale after Not available

Score movement

12.0

Previous run Mar 24, 2026

Mar 25, 2026

Score 32.0 in band watch. Confidence 80%.

Delta vs prior run 12.0

Mar 24, 2026

Score 20.0 in band stable. Confidence 66%.

Trend and export

Full timeline review is available for paid workflows.

Regime

Regime Timeline

Infrastructure Capital Gap

Mar 25, 2026

Signal Infrastructure Capital Gap is active.

Score update

Mar 25, 2026

Score 32.000 (watch).

Historical score

Mar 25, 2026

Historical score 32.000 (watch).

Methodology updated

Mar 25, 2026

Methodology changed from v0.1.1 to v0.1.2.

Income Erosion

Mar 24, 2026

Signal Income Erosion is active.

Historical score

Mar 24, 2026

Historical score 20.000 (stable).

Infrastructure indicators

Infrastructure Exposure

Drinking-water system snapshot

PWSID CT1110011 · population served 5,607 · source water ground_water

Violations 0 · enforcement actions 0

Wastewater and capital beta context

Wastewater links 0 · capital indicators 0 · SRF projects 0

Headline-score eligibility remains off by default unless mapping confidence is high and explicitly enabled.

Fiscal overlay

Fiscal Pressure Metrics

No parent-government overlay is linked for this system yet.

Comparison

Cross-system comparison

Compare this system

Select peer systems and review side-by-side headline score, structural indicators, and signal timelines.

Export workflows

Use exports to move profile insights into monitoring and reporting workflows.

Export CSV Export PDF briefAPI access (coming soon)

Exports

Data and report exports

Export workflows

Use the paid workflow controls above to run compare and export actions.

Sources

Source-linked panels

Source-backed panel

Scoring and signal state

Structured score contributions and public signal summaries, tracked with methodology version and peer context.

Methodology version: v0.1.2
As of date: 2026-03-25
Signals in history: 2

Source-backed panel

Drinking-water identity and compliance

System identity, population served, violation history, enforcement actions, and boundary metadata.

PWSID: CT1110011
Snapshot date: Not available
Violations: 0
Enforcement actions: 0

Source-backed panel

Wastewater and capital context

Wastewater remains beta-only in v1 unless mapping confidence is high and explicitly enabled.

Wastewater links: 0
Capital indicators: 0
SRF projects: 0